March 27, 2020

We’re now waiting on the House to take a vote and pass The Two Trillion-dollar COVID-19 relief bill. Once they do President Trump will sign it and we can start waiting for our $1200 checks.

The good news…

If already filed your 2019 tax return you should expect a check in a few weeks.

The media is having a field day with COVID-19 doomsday reports…

…hey, it generates clicks…

…but the unexpected economic effects will affect how we live our lives for years.

Here’s one…

Expect more STDs, unwanted/unplanned babies and abortions…

The biggest condom manufacturer in the world is on lockdown, and we’re already 100 million condoms short. But people won’t stop having sex.

They may even find they prefer having sex with a person instead of a balloon.

And what does sex lead to? BABIES!

Babies are expensive and women will face either not providing a decent chhildhood or abortion.

Check back in a couple of years and see if abortifacients see a boom in sales.

And don’t forget STDs.

I don’t have to say anything about the humanitarian and economic downsides of AIDS.

Speaking of condoms…

Max Brooks, Mel Brooks son, has made a name for himself as a bestselling zombie apocalypse novelist and military expert with appointment at war colleges. (I don’t make this stuff up.) On NPR yesterday he explained the Defense Production Act recently pushed by liberal politicians like Andrew Cuomo, using condom manufacturers as an example.

He’s talking about a command economy. Government bureaucrats deciding what to manufacturer, how much to manufacture, where it gets shipped and the price. It’s the substitute for market forces that do not exist in socialist countries.

Suntan lotion and sunglasses went to Siberia and coats and boots ended up in sunny Black Sea resorts. That’s why there were jokes in the Soviet Union about joining any store front line…

…Horde whatever was available and barter it for what you need later.

Something new to worry about for we on the southern border…


Mexico has one of the highest obesity and Type 2 diabetes rates in the world. Just about everyone in Mexico is in compromised health. And people with compromised heath die from COVID-19 far more than healthy people.

And if that’s not enough bad news for the Mexican people…

President Lopez-Obrador hasn’t ordered any serious measures to slow the COVID-19 epidemic.

The nightmare scenario is civil disorder in Mexico and maybe the collapse of the government. Untold numbers of people would try to cross the border to join family already living here.

Tucson, where I’ve lived for the last forty years, would likely welcome refugees. But we’ve got finite resources.

And keep in mind that drug cartels would follow the refugees. After all, they make their living feeding off the honest hard-working Mexican people.

Many people in southern Arizona have guns. Things could get very ugly very quickly.

Back in the US…   

The stock market continues to skid, now in reaction to stunning unemployment numbers.

I know the stock market is a boring subject, but keep in mind…

…the stock market is a measure of our collective wealth.

We’re getting poorer.

Echoes of 2008…

Too much credit, too much debt and outright lies about the value of property is the straw the broke the camels back when the industrial economy collapsed in 2008.

Mohamed A. El-Erian is the most respected and influential economist you’ve never heard of. I’m re-reading his 2016 book The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

It’s like reading behind the current headlines. Read it if you dare.

We’re in for another 2008 disaster, but likely worse and longer. Like last time, don’t expect a recovery. Expect to build another new economy, unlike the previous one.

Recent headlines…

Mortgage Bond Sales Flood Market, Sparking Pleas for U.S. Help

Pandemic Threatens Billions in Credit-Card Losses in Echo of ’08

Rising Unemployment and Imminent Corporate Defaults Will Hurt Banks’ Profitability and Capital

Yes, a recession is coming.

Yes, it’s that bad.

No, it won’t get better any time soon.

The two trillion dollar “stimulus” is “Just Damage Containment”

Expect another.

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